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TL;DR
Preliminary data released Oct. 29 show computer and information science enrollment down across undergraduate and graduate programs, while software development hiring remains weak. AI may be affecting young workers, but the available evidence does not establish it as the main cause of the enrollment decline.
Computer and information science enrollment fell across U.S. four-year colleges, two-year colleges and graduate programs this fall, according to preliminary data released Oct. 29 by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. The declines coincide with a weak market for entry-level software jobs, but the data do not show that artificial intelligence caused students to change fields.
Compared with fall 2025, undergraduate enrollment in computer and information science was down 12.4% at four-year colleges and 12.3% at two-year colleges. Graduate enrollment fell 10.4%. Over two years, the reported declines were 18.4%, 17.5% and 27.1%, respectively. The report tracks the same panel of institutions and gives percentage changes, not total enrollment counts.
The figures are preliminary. The Clearinghouse said its report covered 7.92 million enrollments reported by 46.0% of participating institutions as of Sept. 24. Final data are due in January 2027 and could differ. Across higher education, enrollment was up 0.2%; at four-year colleges, engineering enrollment rose 6.1% and health professions rose 6.2%. The pattern suggests students are not broadly abandoning technical or career-oriented study.
Employment figures point to a difficult entry-level market. The source reports that Indeed’s software development postings index stood at about 81, with February 2020 set to 100, and that 4.5% of software development postings in early 2026 were entry-level. Recent computer science graduates had a 7.0% unemployment rate in the latest by-major data cited in the source. Those indicators describe a strained market, but they do not by themselves identify what caused it.
Infographic 01 · The turn
Computer science is down at every level, while engineering and health grow
Early fall 2026 data from 46% of U.S. institutions. Percentage changes for the same panel of schools; final figures follow in January 2027.
Every level is down
Change in enrollment versus the prior fall. The undergraduate drop is speeding up, the graduate drop is slowing after a steep first year.
Undergraduate, 4-year
Undergraduate, 2-year
Graduate
Same 4-year colleges, other fields
Undergraduate enrollment change, fall 2026 vs. fall 2025. Students are leaving one field, not technical study.
- Computer & information science−12.4%
- Liberal arts & humanities−4.5%
- Visual & performing arts−4.2%
- Business+0.1%
- Biology+3.8%
- Engineering+6.1%
- Health professions+6.2%
Source: National Student Clearinghouse, Preliminary Fall Enrollment Trends, 29 Oct 2026 (dashboard Figure 3.5; prior-year values from the same panel). Unweighted, preliminary, subject to revision. Field names shortened. For scale: undergraduate computer science at 4-year colleges grew from about 499,000 (2020) to about 660,000 (2024), then fell 8.1% to about 606,000 in fall 2025 (NSC Final Fall Enrollment Trends 2025).
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A Smaller Pipeline Meets Weak Hiring
The enrollment fall matters to students weighing a degree and to employers planning future hiring. If the decline continues, companies could face smaller graduating classes in coming years. The source estimates that the effect would begin to show around 2029, but that timing depends on the preliminary figures holding and on students’ progress through their programs.
For current graduates, the immediate concern is the limited supply of advertised junior roles. The reported 4.5% entry-level share suggests that openings may be concentrated in jobs requiring experience, though postings are not a complete count of hiring. For employers, the source argues that eliminating junior positions could narrow the future talent pipeline. That is an interpretation, not a measured outcome of the enrollment report.
For prospective students and career switchers, the figures do not establish that computer science is no longer a worthwhile path. The source says the field continues to pay above average, while recommending skills that pair programming with judgment, verification and knowledge of a particular domain. That guidance is career advice, not a finding from the Clearinghouse data.
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Enrollment Rose Before Falling
The decline follows several years of growth in undergraduate computer science enrollment. Final Clearinghouse figures cited in the source put four-year undergraduate enrollment at about 499,000 in fall 2020, rising to roughly 660,000 in fall 2024 before dropping 8.1% in fall 2025, to about 606,000. Graduate enrollment fell 14.0% in fall 2025, to about 190,000.
The Computing Research Association’s 2025 Taulbee Survey, covering PhD-granting computing departments in the United States and Canada, also found that new computer science majors fell 13%, to 33,490. Those departments awarded a record 41,858 bachelor’s degrees, reflecting students who entered earlier. The different timing shows why a fall in new enrollment does not immediately translate into fewer graduates.
Several explanations may overlap. The source cites the post-2021–22 hiring slowdown, visa difficulties affecting international graduate students, remote-work trends and shifts toward newer programs, alongside AI’s possible effect on junior work. It reports that 86% of computing departments in a spring 2026 survey said visa delays and denials hurt their incoming graduate class; at research universities, about half of computer science master’s students are nonresidents. These factors make it difficult to attribute the graduate decline to AI alone.
AI’s Role Is Not Settled
The figures establish that enrollment fell and that software development postings were below their February 2020 index level. They do not establish that AI is the main cause. A Stanford study cited in the source found employment among 22- to 25-year-olds in AI-exposed jobs 19% below where it otherwise would have been. That finding concerns employment in exposed jobs; it does not directly explain college enrollment decisions.
The source also cites a New York Fed analysis that attributes most of the rise in unemployment among young graduates to remote work and says the timing predates generative AI. The available material does not provide enough detail to reconcile the studies or isolate the effect of AI from broader hiring conditions. The Clearinghouse’s preliminary rates may also change when the final figures are released.
One estimate in the source projects four-year undergraduate computer science enrollment near 530,000 if the preliminary 12.4% decline holds. The author describes this as rough arithmetic combining a preliminary rate with final counts, not a forecast. It should not be treated as a confirmed enrollment total.
Final Counts Due in January
The Clearinghouse is expected to publish final fall 2026 enrollment figures in January 2027. Those numbers will show whether the preliminary declines hold, and whether the pattern differs across institution types or fields. Future enrollment and graduation data will be needed to determine whether the current fall produces smaller graduating classes later in the decade.
In the meantime, the key test is whether entry-level hiring improves and whether employers continue reducing or redesigning junior roles. The available figures do not settle how much AI contributes to that market. Students, universities and companies will be watching both the final enrollment count and subsequent labor-market data for a clearer picture.
Key Questions
How much did computer science enrollment fall?
Preliminary fall 2026 data show declines of 12.4% at four-year colleges, 12.3% at two-year colleges and 10.4% in graduate programs compared with fall 2025.
Does the data show that AI caused the decline?
No. The report measures enrollment changes, not their causes. AI may be one influence, but hiring conditions, visa problems and other factors are also cited, and their effects have not been separated.
Is computer science enrollment falling across all fields?
No. At four-year colleges, the same report showed engineering enrollment up 6.1% and health professions up 6.2% this fall. The reported declines were specific to computer and information science among the comparisons provided.
When will final enrollment figures be available?
The Clearinghouse expects to release final fall 2026 numbers in January 2027. The preliminary results may change.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
